In the recent past no other foreign policy issue has generated as much political heat and debate as the Indo-US nuclear deal.

However, in the maze of conflicting positions taken by various political parties, the truth has often been blurred. Facts have been used selectively to propound one’s political ideology and seize what is seen being viewed as an excellent political opportunity.

The common man however, particularly those in the Indian hinterland, is thus fed conflicting views on the deal, and is often left confused. The media as well as government functionaries project this deal through the prism of partisan loyalties.

Will India become a US stooge by signing the deal?
A number of analysts, particularly from the Left, say yes, probably visualising India becoming a close ally of the US in the mould of Japan or UK. But the fact is that not only nuclear cooperation but even if India was to join any defence cooperation mechanism with the US, it would always retain its independence of decision making. The Indian DNA does not facilitate its turning into a Japan.

Will it help ease our energy crisis?
Many see the nuclear deal as a panacea for India’s perennial power shortage. They believe that the deal would lead to massive generation of electricity from nuclear power plants, which would make power cuts a thing of the past. However, even the most ardent supporters of the deal would agree that despite the deal nuclear power will still constitute less than 10 per cent of total power generated in India, at least in the foreseeable future. Nuclear power is also far more expensive compared to hydel power.

So what are we really getting out of it?
The most important aspect of the Indo-US nuclear deal is that it accords India a ‘de-facto’ nuclear power status. Not only that, it makes a clear distinction between India and other countries possessing nuclear weapons, like Pakistan, North Korea and even Israel. Under the Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty (NPT), there is no provision for increasing the number of nuclear powers from existing five, and hence the deal provides India a back door entry into this exclusive club of five nuclear weapon powers.

Will it compromise our nuclear weapons programme?
Many argue that our nuclear weapons programme will be hit if we place our nuclear reactors under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scrutiny. The fact is that under the deal India has to assign only two third of its reactors as civilian nuclear reactors. Only these will be under IAEA safeguards, and they will get nuclear reactor technology from advanced countries and nuclear fuel from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), without any restrictions. What is significant is that it has been left totally to Indian discretion to decide which of its existing reactors should come under this category. Under the existing regulations, advanced nuclear technology is being denied to the Indian nuclear establishment and the Tarapore nuclear reactor has not been getting enough uranium for its operations. It has been on the verge of closure on quite a few occasions and India has been forced to move around with a begging bowl to keep it going. In the past initially France, and subsequently Russia, bailed out India by providing fuel, virtually at the last moment, to keep the reactor going.

What about indigenous supply of uranium?
It must be clearly understood that India does not have adequate uranium ore to provide fuel to expand the generation of nuclear power. It hopes to build thorium reactors in due course as India has the largest thorium reserves in the world, but the nuclear establishment has not yet been successful in establishing a viable thorium reactor capable of operating commercially. Hence there is a need to import uranium for the nuclear power plants till thorium technology is mastered and Indo-US nuclear deal facilitates its import from the NSG. The remaining one third of the Indian nuclear reactors will be in the defence sector and will be outside IAEA safeguards. These could be used for sustaining India’s weaponisation programme and should be adequate to enable development of nuclear weapons and creation of a credible deterrent.

What happens if we want to test again?
A lot has been written about the sanctions that could be imposed in accordance with the US domestic laws, on India, in case it tests a nuclear weapon again. It could result in supply of technology, as well as nuclear fuel, being stopped to India, thereby crippling its reactors, but it must be clearly understood that the situation will only revert to as it exists today. All members of NSG are not bound to follow the US domestic laws, moreover the deal allows India to build a storage so that the reactors are not starved of fuel and continue to operate for a considerable period of time even if US imposes sanctions. In any case it is hoped that in due course India will master the thorium technology, making its dependency on imported uranium redundant.

To sum up, will the deal make India self sufficient as far as its energy requirements are concerned, probably not, but will definitely help it to bridge the yawning gap between the demand and supply, to a considerable extent. However, what is even more significant is that it would establish India as a ‘de-facto’ nuclear power, thereby enhancing its stature considerably. It will eventually enable India to play its rightful role in the comity of nations. It will definitely not tie us to the apron strings of the US. Chinese and Pakistanis may be uncomfortable with the deal but that should definitely not worry us.